The effect of a negative oil price shock on an oil-exporting country: Evidence from Azerbaijan

---

Tezin Türü: Yüksek Lisans

Tezin Yürütüldüğü Kurum: Anadolu Üniversitesi, SOSYAL BİLİMLER ENSTİTÜSÜ, Economics, Türkiye

Tezin Onay Tarihi: 2019

Tezin Dili: İngilizce

Öğrenci: ARİF ARIFLI

Danışman: Zekeriya Yildirim

Özet:

This thesis investigates the effect of a negative oil price shock on the domestic macroeconomic variables of Azerbaijan. The study covers the period from 2006:1 to 2018:8, which includes the recent oil price slump of 2014-2016. We estimate the structural vector auto regression model with Cholesky decomposition analysis and block-exogeneity restriction. We find that a negative oil price shock causes a currency devaluation, deterioration in trade balance, high inflation and recession. Furthermore, a currency devaluation shock generates a similar effect on domestic macroeconomic variables. Accordingly, devaluation deteriorates trade balance, increases inflation, and shrinks economic activity. In other words, these two shocks have a stagflationary effect on Azerbaijan's economy. These findings suggest that a negative oil price shock influences domestic macroeconomic variables via a currency devaluation. Moreover, an oil price shock and a currency devaluation shock explain a sizable portion of the variations in domestic macroeconomic variables. Our findings reveal that the Azerbaijani economy is highly sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices due to its high dependency on oil revenue. As a result, the government should implement policies targeted at decreasing this dependency.