Oil price shocks, exchange rate and macroeconomic fluctuations in a small oil-exporting economy

YILDIRIM Z., Arifli A.

ENERGY, vol.219, 2021 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 219
  • Publication Date: 2021
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.119527
  • Journal Name: ENERGY
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, PASCAL, Aerospace Database, Applied Science & Technology Source, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), CAB Abstracts, Communication Abstracts, Computer & Applied Sciences, Environment Index, INSPEC, Metadex, Pollution Abstracts, Public Affairs Index, Veterinary Science Database, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Keywords: Oil price shocks, Exchange rate, Currency devaluation, Oil-exporting economy, VAR, MONETARY-POLICY, EMERGING MARKETS, COUNTRIES, COINTEGRATION, INFLATION, TRANSMISSION, PERFORMANCE, INFERENCE, DEMAND, MODELS
  • Anadolu University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

This study investigates the macroeconomic effects of adverse oil price shocks on a small oil-exporting economy - the Azerbaijan economy. We estimate a recursive (near) VAR model by using monthly macroeconomic data from 2006 to 2018. The results indicate the Azerbaijan economy is adversely influenced by an oil price decline. Specifically, we find that a negative oil price shock deteriorates trade balance, causes a currency depreciation, increases inflation and falls economic activity. Furthermore, our findings imply that the oil price-led devaluation shapes the inflationary and recessionary consequences of this shock. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.