Probabilistic snow cover and ensemble streamflow estimations in the Upper Euphrates Basin

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Sorman A. A., UYSAL G., ŞENSOY ŞORMAN A.

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY AND HYDROMECHANICS, vol.67, no.1, pp.82-92, 2019 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 67 Issue: 1
  • Publication Date: 2019
  • Doi Number: 10.2478/johh-2018-0025
  • Journal Name: JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY AND HYDROMECHANICS
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.82-92
  • Keywords: Euphrates River Basin, MODIS, Probabilistic snow maps, Hydrological modeling, Ensemble streamflow estimation, EASTERN PART, RIVER-BASIN, MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS, WATER EQUIVALENT, HIMALAYAN BASIN, RUNOFF PROCESS, SATELLITE DATA, AREA DATA, MODIS, PRODUCTS
  • Anadolu University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

Predicting snow cover dynamics and relevant streamflow due to snowmelt is a challenging issue in mountainous basins. Spatio-temporal variations of snow extent can be analyzed using probabilistic snow cover maps derived from satellite images within a relatively long period. In this study, Probabilistic Snow Depletion Curves (P-SDCs) and Probabilistic Snow Lines (P-SLs) are acquired from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud-filtered daily snow cover images. Analyses of P-SDCs show a strong correlation with average daily runoff (R-2 = 0.90) and temperature (R-2 = 0.96). On the other hand, the challenge lies in developing noteworthy methods to use P-SDCs in streamflow estimations. Therefore, the main objective is to explore the feasibility of producing probabilistic runoff forecasts with P-SDC forcing in a snow dominated basin.