Frequency domain causality analysis of tourism and economic activity in Turkey

Gul H., ÖZER M.

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF TOURISM RESEARCH, cilt.19, ss.86-97, 2018 (ESCI) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 19
  • Basım Tarihi: 2018
  • Dergi Adı: EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF TOURISM RESEARCH
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), Scopus
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.86-97
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Frequency domain Granger causality, Time domain (conventional) causality, Real Tourism Incomes, Real Exchange Rate, Real GDP, Turkey, LED-GROWTH HYPOTHESIS, INTERNATIONAL TOURISM, GRANGER CAUSALITY, RUN, INDIA, RECEIPTS, NEXUS
  • Anadolu Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This paper studies the dynamic relationships between real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), real exchange rate (RER) and real tourism income (TOTREC) in Turkey over the period from 2003: Q1 to 2014: Q4 by using frequency domain causality approach developed by Breitung and Candelon (2006). Our findings reveal that real GDP Granger causes real tourism income both in the short-and long-run, while real tourism income only Granger causes real GDP in the short run. Moreover, there is no Granger causality neither between real tourism income and real exchange rate nor between real GDP and real exchange rate. These findings support Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis (TLGH) only in the short-run. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop and implement appropriate tourism policies so that the sector's contribution to economic growth can be extended to long-run. (C) 2018 Varna University of Management. All rights reserved