Frequency domain causality analysis of tourism and economic activity in Turkey

Gul H., ÖZER M.

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF TOURISM RESEARCH, vol.19, pp.86-97, 2018 (ESCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 19
  • Publication Date: 2018
  • Journal Indexes: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.86-97
  • Keywords: Frequency domain Granger causality, Time domain (conventional) causality, Real Tourism Incomes, Real Exchange Rate, Real GDP, Turkey, LED-GROWTH HYPOTHESIS, INTERNATIONAL TOURISM, GRANGER CAUSALITY, RUN, INDIA, RECEIPTS, NEXUS
  • Anadolu University Affiliated: Yes


This paper studies the dynamic relationships between real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), real exchange rate (RER) and real tourism income (TOTREC) in Turkey over the period from 2003: Q1 to 2014: Q4 by using frequency domain causality approach developed by Breitung and Candelon (2006). Our findings reveal that real GDP Granger causes real tourism income both in the short-and long-run, while real tourism income only Granger causes real GDP in the short run. Moreover, there is no Granger causality neither between real tourism income and real exchange rate nor between real GDP and real exchange rate. These findings support Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis (TLGH) only in the short-run. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop and implement appropriate tourism policies so that the sector's contribution to economic growth can be extended to long-run. (C) 2018 Varna University of Management. All rights reserved