Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol.166, 2021 (SSCI, Scopus)
- Publication Type: Article / Article
- Volume: 166
- Publication Date: 2021
- Doi Number: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120637
- Journal Name: Technological Forecasting and Social Change
- Journal Indexes: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, ABI/INFORM, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), INSPEC, Political Science Complete, Social services abstracts, Sociological abstracts, Worldwide Political Science Abstracts, DIALNET
- Keywords: ARCH family models, ARIMA models, Gasoline consumption
- Anadolu University Affiliated: No
Abstract
This paper investigates the effects of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption by employing a unique data set of daily data covering the 2014-2020 period. Forecast performance of benchmark ARIMA models are evaluated for both before and after the outbreak. Even the best-fit model forecasts fail miserably after the Covid-19 outbreak. Adding volatility improves forecasts. Consumption volatility increases due to the outbreak. Policies targeting volatility can reduce adverse impacts of similar shocks on market participants, tax revenues, and vulnerable groups.