Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption

Güngör B. O., ERTUĞRUL H. M., Soytaş U.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, cilt.166, 2021 (SSCI) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 166
  • Basım Tarihi: 2021
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120637
  • Dergi Adı: Technological Forecasting and Social Change
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, ABI/INFORM, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), INSPEC, Political Science Complete, Social services abstracts, Sociological abstracts, Worldwide Political Science Abstracts, DIALNET
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: ARCH family models, ARIMA models, Gasoline consumption
  • Anadolu Üniversitesi Adresli: Hayır

Özet

This paper investigates the effects of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption by employing a unique data set of daily data covering the 2014-2020 period. Forecast performance of benchmark ARIMA models are evaluated for both before and after the outbreak. Even the best-fit model forecasts fail miserably after the Covid-19 outbreak. Adding volatility improves forecasts. Consumption volatility increases due to the outbreak. Policies targeting volatility can reduce adverse impacts of similar shocks on market participants, tax revenues, and vulnerable groups.