Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
JOURNAL OF MEHMET AKIF ERSOY UNIVERSITY ECONOMICS AND ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES FACULTY, cilt.8, sa.2, ss.609-629, 2021 (ESCI)
Non-performing loans are expressed as the first warning of a possible break in the financial system; it is expressed as an early signal of a possible financial or economic crisis. At the same time, changes in macroeconomic indicators as a result of developments in the economy also affect the payments of loan holders; impact the non-performing loan ratio (NPL). The main purpose of this study is to investigate how macroeconomic factors affect the non-performing loan ratio. According to the estimation results of the ARDL Model estimated with quarterly data covering the period 2005Q1-2019Q3, economic growth and inflation decreased the NPL ratio; It was determined that unemployment and exchange rate increased the non-performing loan ratio. According to Toda-Yamamoto causality test findings, there is a causality relationship from all variables to non-performing loans; The existence of a bi-directional causality relationship with unemployment rate has been determined.