Regime-dependent dynamics of nuclear and coal energy in high-income economies: evidence from a Markov switching analysis

Erdogdu M., BAYCAN İ. O.

FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE, vol.13, 2025 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 13
  • Publication Date: 2025
  • Doi Number: 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1691752
  • Journal Name: FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, BIOSIS, INSPEC, Directory of Open Access Journals
  • Anadolu University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

Introduction Nuclear energy remains a key low-carbon source in high-income economies, whereas coal continues to account for a substantial share of greenhouse-gas emissions.Methods This study examines the regime-dependent behaviour of per capita nuclear and coal energy production from 1965 to 2023 using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Structural breaks, volatility shifts, and persistent production regimes are estimated via the Expectation-Maximisation algorithm and smoothed state probabilities.Results The results indicate strong persistence in the medium- and high-production regimes of nuclear energy, while coal exhibits a gradual yet sustained transition from high toward low regimes, consistent with long-term decarbonisation efforts.Conclusion Overall, regime-switching dynamics highlight differing adjustment paths: nuclear production shows cyclical shifts linked to policy/technology cycles, whereas coal reflects a long-run structural decline across high-income economies.