Regime-dependent dynamics of nuclear and coal energy in high-income economies: evidence from a Markov switching analysis
FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE, cilt.13, 2025 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 13
- Basım Tarihi: 2025
- Doi Numarası: 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1691752
- Dergi Adı: FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, BIOSIS, INSPEC, Directory of Open Access Journals
- Anadolu Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Introduction Nuclear energy remains a key low-carbon source in high-income economies, whereas coal continues to account for a substantial share of greenhouse-gas emissions.Methods This study examines the regime-dependent behaviour of per capita nuclear and coal energy production from 1965 to 2023 using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Structural breaks, volatility shifts, and persistent production regimes are estimated via the Expectation-Maximisation algorithm and smoothed state probabilities.Results The results indicate strong persistence in the medium- and high-production regimes of nuclear energy, while coal exhibits a gradual yet sustained transition from high toward low regimes, consistent with long-term decarbonisation efforts.Conclusion Overall, regime-switching dynamics highlight differing adjustment paths: nuclear production shows cyclical shifts linked to policy/technology cycles, whereas coal reflects a long-run structural decline across high-income economies.