Research Information System
Wetlands Ecology and Management, vol.34, no.3, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
Rapid environmental change in the Caspian Basin is reshaping the spatial dynamics of its wetland systems. Ongoing Caspian Sea level decline, expansion of deltaic landscapes in the north, and increasingly mild winters may influence the winter distribution of migratory waterbirds that traditionally migrate to the southern Caspian wetlands. We propose a mechanism-based, climate-driven scenario in which expanding shallow-water habitats in the northern Caspian, particularly within the Volga delta region, could facilitate partial shortening of migration distances in some species. Drawing on global evidence of climate-mediated migration flexibility, we identify ecological traits likely to drive differential species responses and emphasize the value of coordinated monitoring across northern and southern Caspian wetlands. Importantly, we argue that future changes in wintering abundance in the southern Caspian should not be interpreted solely as indicators of local wetland degradation. Large-scale hydrological and climatic dynamics may alter migration systems in ways that complicate conventional population assessments, underscoring the need for basin-scale perspectives in wetland conservation planning.