Improved synthetic wind speed generation using modified Mycielski approach


FİDAN M., HOCAOĞLU F. O., GEREK Ö. N.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENERGY RESEARCH, vol.36, no.13, pp.1226-1237, 2012 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 36 Issue: 13
  • Publication Date: 2012
  • Doi Number: 10.1002/er.1893
  • Journal Name: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENERGY RESEARCH
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.1226-1237
  • Keywords: wind speed, prediction, Mycielski, Markov, modeling, synthetic data generation, ENERGY RESOURCE ASSESSMENT, MARKOV-CHAIN, STATISTICAL-ANALYSIS, SOUTHERN REGION, WEIBULL, MODELS, TURKEY
  • Anadolu University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

In this paper, novel approaches for wind speed data generation using Mycielski algorithm are developed and presented. To show the accuracy of developed approaches, we used three-year collected wind speed data belonging to deliberately selected two different regions of Turkey (Izmir and Kayseri) to generate artificial wind speed data. The data belonging to the first two years are used for training, whereas the remaining one-year data are used for testing and accuracy comparison purposes. The concept of distinct synthetic data production with correlation-wise and distribution-wise similar statistical properties constitutes the main idea of the proposed methods for a successful artificial wind speed generation. Generated data are compared with test data for both regions in the sense of basic statistics, Weibull distribution parameters, transition probabilities, spectral densities, and autocorrelation functions; and are also compared with the data generated by the classical first-order Markov chains method. Results indicate that the accuracy and realistic behavior of the proposed method is superior to the classical method in the literature. Comparisons and results are discussed in detail. Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.