Balance of Power, Interdependence and Strategic Ambiguity: Taiwan’s Trade Leverage in the US-PRC Context

Ertekin B. A., İralı A. E.

EAST ASIA : AN INTERNATIONAL QUARTERLY, cilt.43, sa.5, 2025 (ESCI, Scopus)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 43 Sayı: 5
  • Basım Tarihi: 2025
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s12140-025-09470-2
  • Dergi Adı: EAST ASIA : AN INTERNATIONAL QUARTERLY
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Scopus, Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), IBZ Online, American History and Life, Geobase, Historical Abstracts, Political Science Complete, Public Affairs Index
  • Anadolu Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Amid sustained US-PRC rivalry and Taiwan’s semiconductor centrality, the durability

of Taiwan’s trade leverage merits direct assessment. We assess whether

US security signaling, together with deep PRC interdependence, enables Taiwan to

sustain trade leverage despite limited diplomatic recognition. The study combines

a narrative review with an in-regime (2023–2025) descriptive analysis of Taiwan’s

trade, focusing on partner shares and product-mix shifts that indicate movement

toward higher-value segments. Results show diversification without decoupling.

Overall volumes rise modestly while exports to the US tilt toward higher-value

goods. Lastly, PRC-bound flows remain sizable but differently composed. Interpreted

through balance of power, complex interdependence, and strategic ambiguity, the

evidence suggests that semiconductor-anchored centrality, together with credible security

signals and diversified economic ties, sustains leverage through composition

rather than formal recognition. The article recenters Taiwan in the US-PRC context

and clarifies observable implications for supply-chain policy and trade diplomacy.

Keywords Silicon Island · Semiconductors · Taiwan trade flows · Security

dilemma · Narrative review