The amazon effect and the hidden costs of packaging waste: a Monte Carlo assessment of municipal fiscal and environmental externalities
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES EUROPE, vol.38, no.1, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Publication Type: Article / Article
- Volume: 38 Issue: 1
- Publication Date: 2026
- Doi Number: 10.1186/s12302-026-01429-1
- Journal Name: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES EUROPE
- Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, IBZ Online, BIOSIS, Compendex, Environment Index, Geobase, Directory of Open Access Journals, Natural Science Collection (ProQuest), Health Research Premium Collection (ProQuest)
- Anadolu University Affiliated: Yes
Abstract
BackgroundThe rapid expansion of e-commerce-the "Amazon Effect"-has transformed consumption and logistics patterns while generating a sharp rise in packaging waste. This waste stream imposes hidden fiscal and environmental costs on municipalities, which must scale up collection, sorting, and recycling infrastructure under binding budget constraints. Existing research relies predominantly on deterministic, material-flow approaches and largely overlooks parameter uncertainty and the fiscal externalities transferred from private consumption to local governments. This study reconceptualizes the Amazon Effect as a combined environmental and fiscal externality of digital commerce.ResultsAn integrated cost-benefit and externalities framework was combined with a Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations per scenario) to evaluate four stylized governance pathways-Waste-as-Usual, Waste Under Control, Circular Economy, and a community-integrated (ST-Integrated) scenario-for 2030, 2040, and 2050. The Istanbul metropolitan area was used as an illustrative scaling case. Under the modelling assumptions adopted here, the Waste-as-Usual scenario consistently produced negative expected net benefits, whereas the Circular Economy and ST-Integrated scenarios generated positive expected fiscal and environmental outcomes in more than 85% of simulated parameter combinations. Total system costs were highly sensitive to waste-growth trajectories.ConclusionsPackaging waste from e-commerce should be treated not only as an environmental by-product but also as a municipal fiscal externality. Circular and community-integrated governance pathways appear more likely to remain fiscally and environmentally robust under uncertainty than Waste-as-Usual (WAU) approaches. Policy implications include strengthening Extended Producer Responsibility frameworks to cover digital-economy actors, deploying real-time monitoring tools, and exploring green-financing instruments such as green bonds and carbon offsets, while recognizing the limits of stylized modelling for context-specific policy design.