Speculative price dynamics and bubble formation in Mediterranean citrus markets: The case of Türkiye
NEW MEDIT, vol.25, no.1, pp.141-152, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Publication Type: Article / Article
- Volume: 25 Issue: 1
- Publication Date: 2026
- Doi Number: 10.30682/nm2601i
- Journal Name: NEW MEDIT
- Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, ABI/INFORM, CAB Abstracts, EconLit, Index Islamicus, Directory of Open Access Journals, DIALNET, Natural Science Collection (ProQuest), Business Source Ultimate (EBSCO)
- Page Numbers: pp.141-152
- Open Archive Collection: AVESIS Open Access Collection
- Anadolu University Affiliated: Yes
Abstract
This study investigates the presence and temporal dynamics of speculative bubbles in T & uuml;rkiyes'citrus markets. The analysis is based on seasonal price data covering the 2000/2001 to 2023/2024 marketing years. This study employs the Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) and Generalized SADF (GSADF) tests to determine whether these surges are attributable to fundamental market forces or speculative behavior. The results indicate the presence of speculative bubble episodes in citrus markets, particularly after 2020. Orange and mandarin prices exhibited persistent speculative patterns over multiple seasons, whereas lemon prices displayed shorter and more delayed bubble episodes. These findings suggest that speculative bubbles are not solely driven by supply and demand dynamics but are also significantly influenced by market uncertainty, asymmetric information, and financialization. The findings underscore the need for early warning systems, enhanced market transparency, and flexible policy interventions to mitigate the impact of speculative bubbles.