Wind Speed Forecasting with Missing Values

AKÇAY H., FİLİK T.

7th International Conference on Information Science and Technology (ICIST), Dha-Nang, Vietnam, 16 - 19 Nisan 2017, ss.51-56 identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Bildiri / Tam Metin Bildiri
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1109/icist.2017.7926491
  • Basıldığı Şehir: Dha-Nang
  • Basıldığı Ülke: Vietnam
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.51-56
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: wind energy, forecasting, time-series, auto-regressive moving-average model, Kalman filter, spectral factorization, missing data, POWER FORECAST, MODELS, ENERGY
  • Anadolu Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

In this study, a new short term wind speed forecasting approach, which uses long term past observations, is proposed. The performance assessment of the wind speed forecasting framework is carried out using real data from meteorological stations in Marmara region of Turkey. The data sets are not complete due to equipment failures. The proposed approach builds on data de-trending, covariance-factorization via a subspace method, and one-step-ahead and multi-step-ahead Kalman filter prediction ideas. It is shown that trimming of diurnal, weekly, monthly, and annual patterns in data significantly enhances estimation accuracy. Experimental test results demonstrate that the proposed multi-step-ahead forecasting outperforms the benchmark values computed with the persistent forecasting models.