Türkiye'de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Cari Açık Arasındaki İlişkinin Sınanması: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

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Çatalbaş N.

13. Uluslararası Avrasya Ekonomileri Konferansı, İstanbul, Turkey, 24 - 25 August 2021

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Summary Text
  • City: İstanbul
  • Country: Turkey
  • Anadolu University Affiliated: Yes


The deficit in the current accounts balance is one of the most important problems for the Turkish economy, as in many developing countries. The main reason for the deficit in the current account balance in Turkey is the deficit in the foreign trade balance. While the increase in growth rate positively affects the national income level, it negatively affects the foreign trade and current account balance. In this study, the relationship between economic growth and current account balance in Turkey has been investigated by using quarterly data for the period 1998: 1-2020: 1. The stationarity of the series was tested by ADF unit root test and Lee-Strazicich LM unit root tests with two structural breaks. In order to investigate the long-term relationship between variables, the ARDL (distributed autoregressive delay) model was preferred because the series are stationary at different levels. According to the ARDL limit test results, there is a long-term relationship between the series. The deviations that occur in the short term in the series disappear after approximately 5.4 periods (16.5 months) and the long-term balance is reached.