Research Information System
10th International Conference on Applied Theory, Macro and Empirical Finance, Thessaloniki, Greece, 6 - 07 April 2026, pp.1, (Summary Text)
This study investigates the causal
relationships among distance education, economic growth, and unemployment rates
in Turkey and Portugal. Drawing on the human capital theory, the research
explores whether distance education contributes to economic growth and labor
market outcomes, or whether broader macroeconomic conditions shape the
expansion of distance education systems. By examining these dynamics in two
countries with distinct economic structures and educational systems, the study
aims to provide a deeper understanding of the complex interactions between
education, economic performance, and employment.
The analysis utilizes annual time
series data spanning the period from 1990 to 2023. To capture potential shifts
and structural changes over time, the study employs the Fourier Granger
causality approach. This methodology is particularly effective for examining
evolving economic relationships, as it accounts for an unknown number of
structural changes occurring at unknown points in time and allows for smooth,
gradual shifts rather than abrupt breaks. By using Fourier-based econometric
tests, the study avoids imposing restrictive assumptions and provides a
flexible framework to understand the dynamic interplay among distance
education, economic growth, and unemployment rates.
The empirical findings reveal that
economic growth plays a significant role in driving the expansion of distance
education in both Turkey and Portugal. This suggests that improvements in
macroeconomic performance increase the demand for flexible learning models,
reflecting the responsiveness of educational systems to prevailing economic
conditions. Interestingly, the analysis finds no evidence to support a causal
effect of distance education on economic growth or on unemployment rates. These
results imply that while distance education is an important tool for lifelong
learning and skills development, it primarily responds to existing economic
trends rather than acting as an independent driver of economic performance or
employment.
From a policy perspective, the
study highlights the importance of redesigning distance education systems to
better align with labor market needs, improve educational quality, and develop
sustainable human capital strategies. Policymakers should focus on enhancing
the relevance and effectiveness of distance learning programs, ensuring that
graduates acquire the skills demanded by evolving economic sectors. Such
initiatives could strengthen the role of education in supporting long-term
economic growth and employment, even if distance education does not
independently drive macroeconomic outcomes.
Overall, the findings contribute to
the literature on education, labor markets, and economic development by
emphasizing the reciprocal relationship between economic conditions and the
expansion of distance education. The study underscores that effective
educational policy requires an awareness of broader economic dynamics and a
proactive approach to adapting learning systems to future workforce needs.