A new estimation approach based on moments for estimating Weibull parameters in wind power applications

USTA İ., Arik I., YENİLMEZ İ., MERT KANTAR Y.

ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT, cilt.164, ss.570-578, 2018 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 164
  • Basım Tarihi: 2018
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.enconman.2018.03.033
  • Dergi Adı: ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.570-578
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Weibull distribution, Moments, Multi-objective function, Wind power, Comparative analysis, NUMERICAL-METHODS, GENERALIZED LINDLEY, ENERGY APPLICATIONS, SPEED DISTRIBUTION, NORTHEAST REGION, DISTRIBUTIONS, DENSITY, TURKEY, BRAZIL
  • Anadolu Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study introduces a new estimation approach that could be used in calculating the Weibull parameters for the estimation of wind power. This new approach, called the method of multi-objective moments (MUOM), proposes minimization of the squared deviances between the first three population moments and corresponding sample moments. In the proposed MUOM, the third moment, which is used in the formula of wind power, is a key function since it provides a significant contribution to the correct prediction of wind energy. In order to demonstrate the performance of the proposed MUOM, it is compared with the well-known estimation methods such as the maximum likelihood, modified maximum likelihood, moment and energy pattern factor. In comparative analysis, the performance of the considered methods is evaluated on the actual wind speed data measured different time periods according to various goodness of fit criteria. The obtained results indicate that the MUOM definitely provides more accurate estimates than other well-known methods in estimating wind power based on the Weibull distribution. Thus, the MUOM can be used as an improved method in estimating wind power.